COLUMBUS, OH—A new report from DePaul University's Chaddick Institute for Metropolitan Development paints a promising picture for passenger rail in the Midwest, highlighting robust ridership growth and renewed investment in the Chicago Hub. While the findings are cause for celebration across the region, the document cautions that new service to key Ohio cities like Columbus is unlikely to begin before 2030.

The report, "Growth Spurt: The Outlook for Chicago's Intercity Rail Traffic Through 2030," details how Amtrak’s Chicago Hub is outperforming other U.S. regions. Fueled by strong demand and new services like the Borealis train to St. Paul, ridership on state-supported routes is projected to grow by an estimated 10% over the next two years.

The study anticipates that this growth will push the Chicago Hub’s ridership past pre-pandemic levels by late 2026. This impressive performance is a testament to the success of state partnerships and federal programs designed to accelerate rail development. However, this rapid growth has also exposed a key challenge: capacity shortages.

The report notes that load factors (the percentage of seats filled) on Chicago Hub trains are the highest among peer regions, often leading to sold-out trains and increased fares, particularly around holidays. This issue, combined with the lack of significant new service additions on the horizon for the period between 2028 and 2030, is expected to slow the overall growth rate.

For Ohio, the report's outlook is a mix of good news and a call to action. While the growth in the Midwest demonstrates the strong market for expanded passenger rail, the document explicitly states that "technical factors may prevent service expansion to Columbus, OH...before the end of 2030." This signals a need for continued advocacy and planning to ensure Ohio is ready to capitalize on the next wave of rail development.

The report’s analysis underscores the critical need for states to invest in more passenger coaches proactively and pursue "hands-on" strategies to promote rail travel. It recommends states develop programs to expand synergy with public transit and leverage supplemental bus services to connect underserved markets.

With Ohio’s rail plans still in the early stages, these recommendations offer a clear roadmap for what must be done to bring meaningful passenger rail service to the state.

About the Document: The "Chicago Hub Outlook Report" is a Chaddick Policy Brief by Joseph P. Schwieterman, a professor at DePaul University and director of the Chaddick Institute. The brief was prepared independently and uses publicly available data to examine intercity rail passenger traffic trends.